第32章世界のマクロ経済政策

Jobs are created in economies that grow. What is the origin of economic growth? According to most economists who believe in the growth consensus, economic growth (as we discussed in Economic Growth) is built on a foundation of productivity improvements. In turn, productivity increases are the result of greater human and physical capital and technology, all interacting in a market-driven economy. In the pursuit of economic growth, however, some countries and regions start from different levels, as the differences in per capita GDP presented earlier in Table 32.2 illustrate.

For the high-income countries, the challenge of economic growth is to push continually for a more educated workforce that can create, invest in, and apply new technologies. In effect, the goal of their growth-oriented public policy is to shift their aggregate supply curves to the right (refer to The Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply Model). The main public policies targeted at achieving this goal are fiscal policies focused on investment, including investment in human capital, in technology, and in physical plant and equipment. These countries also recognize that economic growth works best in a stable and market-oriented economic climate. For this reason, they use monetary policy to keep inflation low and stable, and to minimize the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, while also encouraging domestic and international competition.

However, early in the second decade of the 2000s, many high-income countries found themselves more focused on the short term than on the long term. The United States, Western Europe, and Japan all experienced a combination of financial crisis and deep recession, and the after-effects of the recession—like high unemployment rates—seemed likely to linger for several years. Most of these governments took aggressive, and in some cases controversial, steps to jump-start their economies by running very large budget deficits as part of expansionary fiscal policy. These countries must adopt a course that combines lower government spending and higher taxes.

Similarly, many central banks ran highly expansionary monetary policies, with both near-zero interest rates and unconventional loans and investments. For example, in 2012, Shinzo Abe (see Figure 32.4), then newly-elected Prime Minister of Japan, unveiled a plan to pull his country out of its two-decade-long slump in economic growth. It included both fiscal stimulus and an increase in the money supply. The plan was successful in some ways and unsuccessful in others. While real GDP growth in Japan has averaged around 1% since 2012 (and was only 0.2% in 2014 and 0.7% in 2016) and while the inflation rate has struggled to stay positive in recent years, the unemployment rate continued to decline through the 2010s. By early 2020, prior to the pandemic, the unemployment rate stood at just 2.5%. Public debt has also reached a plateau in the last 5–7 years of about 230–240% of GDP, although this number did increase slightly in 2020 due to the pandemic. Shinzo Abe stepped down as Prime Minister of Japan in 2020, and was assassinated in 2022.

As we discussed in other chapters, macroeconomics needs to have both a short-run and a long-run focus. The challenge for many of the developed countries in the next few years will be to grapple with the consequences of the pandemic. With high unemployment and no end of the virus containment in sight, it will be challenging for these governments to refocus their efforts on new technology, education, and physical capital investment.