第2章記述統計

Time series graphs are important tools in various applications of statistics. When recording values of the same variable over an extended period of time, sometimes it is difficult to discern any trend or pattern. However, once the same data points are displayed graphically, some features jump out. Time series graphs make trends easy to spot.

It is important to remember that the very reason we develop a variety of methods to present data is to develop insights into the subject of what the observations represent. We want to get a "sense" of the data. Are the observations all very much alike or are they spread across a wide range of values, are they bunched at one end of the spectrum or are they distributed evenly and so on. We are trying to get a visual picture of the numerical data. Shortly we will develop formal mathematical measures of the data, but our visual graphical presentation can say much. It can, unfortunately, also say much that is distracting, confusing and simply wrong in terms of the impression the visual leaves. Many years ago Darrell Huff wrote the book How to Lie with Statistics. It has been through 25 plus printings and sold more than one and one-half million copies. His perspective was a harsh one and used many actual examples that were designed to mislead. He wanted to make people aware of such deception, but perhaps more importantly to educate so that others do not make the same errors inadvertently.

Again, the goal is to enlighten with visuals that tell the story of the data. Pie charts have a number of common problems when used to convey the message of the data. Too many pieces of the pie overwhelm the reader. More than perhaps five or six categories ought to give an idea of the relative importance of each piece. This is after all the goal of a pie chart, what subset matters most relative to the others. If there are more components than this then perhaps an alternative approach would be better or perhaps some can be consolidated into an "other" category. Pie charts cannot show changes over time, although we see this attempted all too often. In federal, state, and city finance documents pie charts are often presented to show the components of revenue available to the governing body for appropriation: income tax, sales tax motor vehicle taxes and so on. In and of itself this is interesting information and can be nicely done with a pie chart. The error occurs when two years are set side-by-side. Because the total revenues change year to year, but the size of the pie is fixed, no real information is provided and the relative size of each piece of the pie cannot be meaningfully compared.

Histograms can be very helpful in understanding the data. Properly presented, they can be a quick visual way to present probabilities of different categories by the simple visual of comparing relative areas in each category. Here the error, purposeful or not, is to vary the width of the categories. This of course makes comparison to the other categories impossible. It does embellish the importance of the category with the expanded width because it has a greater area, inappropriately, and thus visually "says" that that category has a higher probability of occurrence.

Time series graphs perhaps are the most abused. A plot of some variable across time should never be presented on axes that change part way across the page either in the vertical or horizontal dimension. Perhaps the time frame is changed from years to months. Perhaps this is to save space or because monthly data was not available for early years. In either case this confounds the presentation and destroys any value of the graph. If this is not done to purposefully confuse the reader, then it certainly is either lazy or sloppy work.

Changing the units of measurement of the axis can smooth out a drop or accentuate one. If you want to show large changes, then measure the variable in small units, penny rather than thousands of dollars. And of course to continue the fraud, be sure that the axis does not begin at zero, zero. If it begins at zero, zero, then it becomes apparent that the axis has been manipulated.

Perhaps you have a client that is concerned with the volatility of the portfolio you manage. An easy way to present the data is to use long time periods on the time series graph. Use months or better, quarters rather than daily or weekly data. If that doesn't get the volatility down then spread the time axis relative to the rate of return or portfolio valuation axis. If you want to show "quick" dramatic growth, then shrink the time axis. Any positive growth will show visually "high" growth rates. Do note that if the growth is negative then this trick will show the portfolio is collapsing at a dramatic rate.

Again, the goal of descriptive statistics is to convey meaningful visuals that tell the story of the data. Purposeful manipulation is fraud and unethical at the worst, but even at its best, making these type of errors will lead to confusion on the part of the analysis.